Bank of America Mortgage Delinquencies

Bank of America has roughly 11% of its mortgages 30 days past due or worse. That's ticking up a little bit from recent quarters, according to this chart shown at the company's presentation during the most recent Barclays Conference.

Wells Fargo Foreclosure Rate and Delinquencies

Wells Fargo's recent presentation given this september at the Barclays conference shows thatthe company has some of the lowest rates of foreclosure and delinquency on mortgages of any large bank.

Well's has a delinquency rate of 4.9% versus Citi's 6% and Chase's 5.6%.

And it's foreclosure rate is 2.3% vs. 4.1% at Bank of America.

Wells Fargo's Mortgage Delinquency Rates and Foreclosures are Better than Average and Better than Bank of America

Wells Fargo Chairman and CEO John Stumpf recently presented at the Morgan Stanley investors conference. One of the more interesting charts he talked about was on slide #21 in which he shows the Deliquency rate and foreclosure rate of his bank versus his peers during the third quarter of 2010. Specifically:

• Wells Fargo - 6.1% Delinquent + 2.1% in foreclosure
• Citibank - 6.9% Delinquent and 2.6% of mortgages in foreclosure.
• JP Morgan Chase came in at 7.8% and 3.7% respectively
• Bank of America was the laggard of the bunch (Thanks to their countrywide acquisition) with a whopping 3.7% of loans in foreclosure and 10.6% seriously deliquent..
• You can click on the chart above for larger view of the data that Mr. Stumpf presented.

The CEO also showed a comparison during fiscal year 2010 for the charge-offs as a percentage of all loans for Wells Fargo and its peers. Citi took the most in charge-offs on debt (4.6%), followed by Bank of America (3.6%), JPM (3.4%), Wells (2.3%) and US Bank had the best performance with just 2.2% charged off.

Interestingly enough over the last 10 years, Citi was the worst and US Bank was the best.

Unemployment Rate versus Mortgage Delinquency Rate

The chart can be expanded by clicking on it. But one interesting thing to look at is comparing the delinquency rate on all Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae Mortgages (The bar charts -- which use the left axis) versus the unemployment rate during the last 5 years. It's not surprising that as people lose their jobs and/or become under-employed they have less ability to stay current on their monthly mortgage payments.

consequently, the seriously delinquency rate experienced by America's largest mortgage companies really spikes up. You can see that Fannie has experienced far more mortgages going bad than Freddie has---but neither one did good in 2010. Fortunately, things seemed to have plateaued for now---However, as the chart shows---if people start getting laid off again, I think another step up in charge-offs and non-performing loans could pester these GSA's.

(Unfortunately, it had been months since I pulled the unemployment data, and I couldn't readily find the monthly U-6 data for much of 2009 and 2010---If you happen to have it handy, feel free to leave it in the comments and hopefully I'll be able to update the chart in a future month).

Fannie Mae - Delinquent Mortgage Chart and Data - Things improved in 2010.

Click on Chart for a larger image.

Fannie Mae publishes seriously delinquent data each and every month for mortgages that it owns. The good news is that the delinquency rate has started to come down during 2010; the bad news is that it is still elevated versus historic norms.

Fannie Mae saw it's highest delinquency rates during February 2010, when 3.9% of single-family homes (non-credit enhanced / i.e. conforming mortgages) were seriously behind their monthly payment. Things were even worse for Fannie's credit enhanced notes (i.e. lower down-payment levels and likely paying mortgage insurance)---A whopping 13.8% of credit enhanced mortgages were deliquent in February, 2010.

Since that time, things improved to 3.4% andd 10.6% by the end of 2010.

Although things have improved, Fannie is still in a little worse shape than Freddie (That will be the topic of another post).

Jobless Rate Doubles; Fannie & Freddie Delinquencies Septuple

Click on Chart for a Bigger Image

Here is an update of a set of data that I've been paying attention to for the last year. It compares the unemployment rate (Blue Line), the U6 Broader Unemployment Rate (Purple Line, which includes the jobless, and the people working part-time for economic reasons) with the delinquency rate on Fannie Mae (Red Bar) and Freddie Mac (Green Bar) mortgage loans on single family homes.

The picture isn't pleasing---You can see that as broad unemployment rate increased from less than 10% to 17.5% (in October, 2009)---The delinquency rate on home loans for Fannie & Freddie (which are typically Prime Loans) have increased by almost 6 - 8 Fold!

Let me repeat that---In Late 2006 and Early 2007, the prime mortgages were delinquent at merely ~0.5%. Now Freddie Mac has a 3.33% Delinquency Rate (September, 2009) and Fannie has a Delinquency Rate of 4.45%.

People should remember that in 2007, the economy & markets started tanking because sub-prime mortgages started going delinquent... Granted, those loans were going bust a significantly higher rate than the Freddie & Fannie notes---but also remember that Freddie & Fannie loan out significantly more money than what was ever given out to sub-prime borrowers... I don't have the data, but I'd venture to say that in order-of-magnitude--these loan delinquencies could be as bad or worse than the sub-prime crises.

Freddie Mac Delinquency Rates Continue to Climb--1 in 38 Freddie Mortgages Seriously Delinquent

Click on Chart for a Larger/Clearer Image

Freddie Mac recently published the data for its seriously delinquent mortgages through May-2009. And the results continue to worsen.

2.01% of "Non-Credit Enhanced Mortgages" are seriously delinquent--These are mortgages that would have had at least a 20% down payment.

And 5.45% of Credit enchanced Freddi Mac Mortgage loans are delinquent---Think of these as folks who couldn't pony up the 20% down payment and may be using PMI (private mortgage insurance) to get the safety that Freddie wants.

Overall (combining the above 2 catagories) 2.62% of F-Mac's mortgages are seriously behind in their payments... And to make matters worse for all those "green-shooters" out there, the second derivative of delinquencies increased in May. (That essentially means that the rate of increase in delinquencies in May has increased vs. what it was in April).

Commercial Mortgage Delinquencies Quickly Climbing

Click on Image for a Larger View.

Crains Chicago today showed a chart that shows just how bad the Great Recession is impacting the rate of commercial mortgage delinquencies. At the end of Q1-2009, 3.6% of American Commercial mortgages were delinquent and 5.6% of Chicago area loans were behind in their payments---Both are almost 4 times worse than what was typical during 2006.

Of the Top-100 US Metro Areas, Foresight Analytics says that these 10 areas have the worst delinquency rates for the commercial mortgage market:

1. Warren-Farmington Hills-Troy, Michigan 6.3%
2. Miami, Florida -- 5.7%
3. Chicago -- 5.6%
4. Grand Rapids, Michigan 5.4%
5. Milwaukee, Wisconsin 5.2%
6. Indianopolis, IN -- 5.1%
7. Jacksonville, FL 5.0%
8. Sarasota, FL--4.9%
9. Dayton, Ohio -- 4.5%
10. Lake County, IL / Kenosha County, WI 4.4%

In the 1990's commercial mortgage delinquencies peaked around 9% and it's likely that as this recession lingers, unemployment climbs and vacancies rise--the rate of delinquencies will continue to escalate.

What I found quite interesting is that most of the "top-10" come from the Midwest and Florida---but as we all know the credit crunch has hurt consumers in California, Nevada, Arizona and Oregon as hard as the midwest---so I'm guessing in a few more quarters time you'll be seeing communities like Phoenix, LA, Las Vegas, and Portland creeping to the top of the list as well.

Fannie & Freddie's Serious Delinquencies Continue to Worsen

Click on Image for a bigger chart

Data released from Freddie and Fannie show that the rate of serious delinquencies continue to worsen in March (Freddie) and February (Fannie).

Freddie saw a 2.29% serious delinquency rate in its single family home mortgage portfolio, while Fannie Mae saw almost 3% of it's single family home loan portfolio in the seriously delinquent category. [both of these data points are shown as bars & use the left hand scale on the chart].

Fannie and Freddie have large amounts of prime mortgages on their books and as you can see, as the unemployment rate and underemployment rate in the US continue to increase (Lines on the chart using the right hand scale), the numbers of people with prime mortgages who fall behind and run into payment problems continue to increase.

Since we can see that the unemployment continued to rise in April, 2009 I think we can safely forecast that the GSE's delinquency rate will continue to climb upwards.

Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Worsen for Sub-prime, Jumbo, and Option ARM loans

Click for a Sharper Image

According to data from JP Morgan Chase 60+ delinquency rates across all loan catagories continue to rise.

The latest statistics from March 31, 2009 show that mortgage delinquencies for Subprime loans reached ~40% in March, and Option ARM loans (sometimes called pick-a-payment) went north of 30%, and this group has the steepest rise in default rates. [You can count on the Option ARM loans to continue increase in defaults as the resets roll through during 2009 - 2011]

These segments were followed by Alt-A mortgages with almost 20% of loans being 60 days or more behind and Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOC) hovering around 10%...

Another disturbing trend is the early uptick in Jumbo Prime loans that are past due.
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On the other side of the chart is the recovery values by loan type...

As you'd expect HELOC loans have the worst recovery values---this is because they are typically not the first lien on the property---But another disturbing trend is that the recovery rates across all types of loans has been on serious downward spiral.

Hat tip to: Dr. Housing Bubble for the chart

Fannie & Freddie Delinquency Rates vs Unemployment Rate

Click for a Larger Image

It has been a couple of months since I've compared the serious delinquency rates at Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac with the unemployment rate and (U6) underemployment rate provided from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The news doesn't appear to be getting any better---The Fannie Mae delinquency rates on single family homes have incrased from 2.13% in November, 2008 to 2.77% in January, 2009 (The latest data-point available)---The delinquency rate at Freddie Mac has increased from 1.72% in December, 2008 to 2.13% in February 2009.

Given that the March Unemployment Rate is 8.5% and the U6 unemployment rate (which includes underemployed workers is 15.6%)---I estimate that you'll see Freddie's delinquency rates for March 2009 come in over 2.5% and Fannie's to be north of 3%... Keep in mind most of these mortgages were of significantly higher quality than your run of the mill sub-prime loan, Alt-A loan or Option Arm Loan---Those delinquency rates are significantly higher.

Almost 1 in 9 Michigan Mortgages are Delinquent

According to the Detroit Free Press more than 1 in 10 Michigan home owners are 30 days (or more) delinquent on their mortgages and almost 1 in 25 Michigan mortgages are in foreclosure as of Q4-2008.

The story references a recent Mortgage Bankers Association report that cites 8.6% of all U.S. mortgages are delinquent in the U.S. (compared to 11.1% in Michigan) and 3.7% of Michigan's mortgages are in foreclosure.

The report also stated:

... five states – California, Florida, Nevada, Arizona and Michigan – continue to dominate the delinquency numbers. Yet five other states – Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Texas and Mississippi – had the sharpest increases last quarter in loans 90 days or more late, which are signs that the recession’s impact is spreading, he said.

Times are tough in Michigan as demand for durable goods continues to decline and the state saw 11.6% unemployment in January, 2009.

A Decade of Delinquency and Charge-offs

According to data from the Federal Reserve the Delinquency Rates seen by US Banks in Q4-2008 reached 10-year highs in Q4-2008.

The Delinquency Rate on Single Family homes in Q4-2008 was 6.29%---Up 107 basis points from Q3-2008's 5.22%. Clearly as unemployment continues to rise, delinquencies will continue to rise.

The Delinquency Rate on Commercial Mortgages rose from 4.74% in Q3-2008 to 5.36% in Q4-2008---Also a rate much higher than anything we have seen in the past decade.


Click for a Larger Image

What is interesting is when you look at the Charge-Off Rate for Single-family homes. Q4-2008 mortgage charge-off rate was only at 1.58%--compared to 1.46% in Q3-2008. I believe this is because many more banks started to try "work-outs" with the delinquent consumers and also wanted to "wait and see" what Obama's plan would be help out homeowners behind in their payments. I predict that Q1-2009 (Data to be released ~May 2009) will show continued slow growth in charge-offs, but sooner or later the banks will have to pay the piper and charge-off rates on single family home mortgages will spike up (Likely Q2 & Q3-2009).

The Charge-off Rate for commercial real estate was up from the 1.16% in Q3-2008 to 2.04% in Q4-2008. This is the highest rate since 1992, and could continue to climb as businesses fall on hard time and demand for office and retail space dwindles making the leverage taken out on such properties much more difficult to service, and much more likely to be charged-off.

Unemployment/Underemployment Rates vs Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae Mortgage Delinquency Rates

Given Barack Obama's Stimulus Package and efforts to curtail the amount of mortgage foreclosures that are occurring in the market place, I thought it would be an interesting exercise to compare the unemployment rate and underemployment (U6) rate in America with the mortgage delinquency rates that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are experiencing.

Looking at data for 2006 - 2008, you can see the impact of a vicious feedback cycle. As people get delinquent in their mortgages, banks and other investors have to write assets down and constrict credit, this feeds into the economic contraction which causes more companies to scale back on headcount and hours worked--causing increases in the unemployment rate and underemployment rate.


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In my opinion, as you look out into 2009 (and 2010) the economic contraction and credit crunch will continue to cost people their jobs--and this will cause an escalation in delinquent loans throughout 2009 and part of 2010---It will hit conforming loans, Alt-A loans, sub-prime and jumbo mortgages.

Expect Helicopter Ben to try and solve much of the problem by printing more money and trying to push long term rates near all-time lows.
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For more information on underemployment click here: unempmloymentadvice.blogspot.com

Freddie Mac vs Fannie Mae Mortgage Delinquency Rate 2005 - 2008

In a couple of recent posts I showed how from 2005 to 2008 Fannie Mae's Delinquency rate on single family mortgages has more than tripled and during the same time Freddie Mac's delinquency rates on single family mortgages have more than doubled---so I thought it would be useful to put all that data on a single chart.

Below you will see delinquency statistics for Freddie Mac (Green Lines) and Fannie Mae (Red Lines) from 2005 to 2008. Throughout 2005 and much of 2006, the difference in delinquency rates between the two firms was ~10 basis points. However, by the end of 2008 Fannie Mae was seeing significantly higher delinquency rates than Freddie Mac.

In November 2008, Fannie had delinquency rate that was 61 bps higher than Freddie for "Total Single Family" mortgages---And 228 bps worse for Fannie when you are only looking at single family mortgages with credit enhancements (i.e. Private Mortgage Insurance)


Click for a larger image

Freddie Mac Mortgage Delinquency Rate More than Doubles from 2005 to 2008

According to data from Freddie Mac it saw delinquency rates on single family more than double from 2005 to 2008. Total Single-Family home mortgage delinquency rate (3+ months behind or in foreclosure) for Freddie Mac mortgages was 1.72% in December 2008, and rose more than 100 basis points in 2008.


Click for a larger Image

The delinquency rates for Freddie Mac mortgages with Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) or other credit enhancements was 3.79% in December 2008---Up over 200 basis points in 2008.

Fannie Mae's Mortgage Delinquency Rate more than triples from 2005 to 2008

According to data & statistics from Fannie Mae the amount of mortgage delinquencies on single family home mortgages have more than tripled from early 2005 (0.64% in 2/2005) to the end of 2008 (2.13% seriously delinquent in 11/2008).

The chart below looks at conventional single-family mortgages that are three months ore more past-due or in foreclosure as a percent of the total number of conventional single family mortgages.


Click for a Larger Image

The figures for Credit Enhanced Fannie Mae mortgages is worse than average with a serious delinquency rate of 5.69% in November 2008 (and rising). (These are loans with Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) or some other type of credit enhancement).

Jumbo Mortgage Delinquencies are increasing

According to the the WSJ

By NICK TIMIRAOS

Rising defaults by affluent homeowners are raising the specter of another cloud over banks and investors, which could get stuck with thousands of expensive homes.

About 6.9% of prime "jumbo" loans were at least 90 days delinquent in December, according to LPS Applied Analytics, a mortgage-data research firm. The rate was up sharply from 2.6% a year earlier. In comparison, delinquencies of non-jumbo prime loans that qualify for backing by government agencies climbed to 2.1% from 0.8% in December 2007.

Jumbo mortgages average about $750,000 and can run as high as $5 million or more. More borrowers with such loans are being hit by layoffs that are spreading through practically every sector and pay level of the U.S. economy.

On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported that the jobless rate rose in December in all 50 states, hitting at least 10% in Michigan and Rhode Island. States that suffered the biggest jumps in unemployment in the past year include California and Florida, where the largest number of jumbo loans were made.

Commercial Mortgage Delinquency Rates Q4-2008

Today WSJ.com published a Deutsche Bank report that compares the delinquency rates for 5 sectors of commercial real-estate (Office, Industrial, Hotels, Retail, and Multi-family) with the overall Delinquency Rate for commercial properties.

Click on Chart for larger image

As you can see, Hotels, Retail, and Multi-family commercial properties are really seeing a tremendous uptick in delinquency rate with Multi-family delinquencies crossing 2.5%.

New Jersey's Alt-A Mortgage and Sub-Prime loan performance

The New York Fed published data in October that shows how the Alt-A and Sub-prime Mortgages have been performing in New Jersey.

The percentage of loans that are current are much higher for Fixed Rate Loans than for the Adjustable Rate Loans. 84% of Alt-A fixed rate loans in New Jersey were current in October 2008, while just 41% of Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) in New Jersey's sub-prime mortgage universe were current with their payments.


Click on chart for a larger picture