Showing posts with label subprime. Show all posts
Showing posts with label subprime. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Worsen for Sub-prime, Jumbo, and Option ARM loans

Click for a Sharper Image

According to data from JP Morgan Chase 60+ delinquency rates across all loan catagories continue to rise.

The latest statistics from March 31, 2009 show that mortgage delinquencies for Subprime loans reached ~40% in March, and Option ARM loans (sometimes called pick-a-payment) went north of 30%, and this group has the steepest rise in default rates. [You can count on the Option ARM loans to continue increase in defaults as the resets roll through during 2009 - 2011]

These segments were followed by Alt-A mortgages with almost 20% of loans being 60 days or more behind and Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOC) hovering around 10%...

Another disturbing trend is the early uptick in Jumbo Prime loans that are past due.
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On the other side of the chart is the recovery values by loan type...

As you'd expect HELOC loans have the worst recovery values---this is because they are typically not the first lien on the property---But another disturbing trend is that the recovery rates across all types of loans has been on serious downward spiral.

Hat tip to: Dr. Housing Bubble for the chart

Monday, March 2, 2009

Wave of Mortgage Resets to hit 2009 - 2012

One of the best blogs out there covering the current mortgage market is Dr. Housing Bubble and today they issued a post that included the chart below:

Click for a larger image

This is a Credit Suisse chart that shows the the oncoming mortgage resets for ARMs, Option ARMs, Subprime Loans, Alt-A Loans, Prime Mortgages and Agency Mortgages. And the outlook is grim---There is a significant amount of mortgage resets that are scheduled to occur in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012.

Currently in 2009 Mortgage rates are at all-time lows---but if your house is underwater, you can't refinance and will face a mortgage reset. Looking into the future, many people are seeing much higher rates in the outer years---So when the 2010 - 2012 resets occur, home-owners' monthly mortgage payments could take a quantum leap up.

As I've blogged about before, this housing bubble took years to climb in value---and it will likely take years to come to a bottom.

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Crisis of Credit --- The Video

Jonathan Jarvis has created a 'user-friendly' video that explains the credit crisis---and shows how mortgages, sub-prime mortgages, CDO's, Credit Default Swaps, Investors, Brokers and others created the credit crunch.

If you or somebody you know gets confused by the financial alphabet soup that the media is constantly talking about, this video does an excellent job of explaining the mortgage mess in laymen's terms...


The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.

(10 min 50 sec)

Wednesday, January 7, 2009

New Jersey's Alt-A Mortgage and Sub-Prime loan performance

The New York Fed published data in October that shows how the Alt-A and Sub-prime Mortgages have been performing in New Jersey.

The percentage of loans that are current are much higher for Fixed Rate Loans than for the Adjustable Rate Loans. 84% of Alt-A fixed rate loans in New Jersey were current in October 2008, while just 41% of Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) in New Jersey's sub-prime mortgage universe were current with their payments.


Click on chart for a larger picture

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

The states with the highest rates of non-owner occupied sub-prime housing.

The states with the highest rates of non-owner occupied sub-prime housing in the United States are Washington DC, Hawaii, Ohio, Indiana, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin.



These figures are important because an investor is far more likely to walk away from a property that is underwater and not generating income than what would be expected from an owner-occupied property.

Monday, January 5, 2009

California Sub-prime Loan Status-November 2008

Less than half of the sub-prime borrowers in California are current on their mortgage.

According to November 2008 data provided by the New York Fed, only 47% of sub-prime loans are current while 12% are in foreclosure and 14% are already real-estate owned (REO). Over 13% of the loans are over 90 days behind and well on their way into foreclosure while an additional 14% of loans are 1 or 2 months behind.

As California's unemployment rate continues to climb, odds are these numbers will continue to worsen.

Alt-A Loans vs Subprime Loans

Youtube's Mr. Mortgage created a very interesting video a while back comparing the sub-prime loans (& defaults) with the Alt-A universe of Loans and upcoming wave of resets which will likely cause more defaults.

Sub-prime loans made in CA, NY, FL, NV, AZ and TX

The Wall Street Journal online has published an interesting interactive map that shows the percentage of mortgages that went to sub-prime borrowers between 2004 & 2007.

Specifically you can view what the market looked like for California, Florida, New York, Arizona, Nevada and Texas.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/hispanics08_map.html

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

169 Mortgage companies closed last year

Story from bloomberg

Fed Study Finds 169 Mortgage Finance Companies Failed Last Year


By Craig Torres

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve researchers found that 169 independent mortgage companies ceased operations in 2007, crimping credit to consumers as the economy plunged into a recession.

The data signal the waning of lightly regulated mortgage lenders that thrived with funding from Wall Street firms and investors hungry for yield. Non-bank lenders’ share of the high- priced loan market, which includes subprime loans, fell to 20.5 percent in 2007 from 50.6 percent in 2004, the Fed study said.

Most of the non-bank lenders sold their home loans to investment banks which repackaged them into bonds. As the mortgages deteriorated in quality last year, buyers disappeared, leaving the finance companies holding souring loans. One of the largest non-bank lenders, New Century Financial Corp., based in Irvine, California, filed for bankruptcy last year.

“It underscores the whole vulnerability of a system that doesn’t have checks and balances in place at the beginning of loan origination,” said Kevin Petrasic, an attorney at Paul, Hastings, Janofsky & Walker in Washington and a former special counsel at the Office of Thrift Supervision.

Most of the financial institutions weren’t considered banks or banking subsidiaries so they were regulated by state banking supervisors rather than by federal agencies.

The 169 defunct lenders “accounted for nearly 15 percent of the higher-priced conventional first-line loans for site- built properties in 2006,” according to the final draft of the study published in the December Federal Reserve Bulletin. “They accounted for about 8 percent of all conventional first-lien loans for such properties.”

Market Shrank

Banks’ share of the high-priced loan market rose to 46 percent last year from 26 percent in 2004, the data show. The banks’ market-share growth came as other firms disappeared and the overall market shrank. High-priced loan volumes fell 18 percent last year.

“If the subprime market continues to exist at all going forward, it will have to be done almost exclusively by federally insured depositary institutions in the near term, and perhaps eventually by non-depository lenders subject to rigorous state oversight,” Petrasic said.

Fed economists Robert Avery, Kenneth Brevoort, and Glenn Canner of the Board’s Research and Statistics Division also found that 74 percent of blacks who obtained mortgages from the 169 financial institutions received high-priced loans. Among Hispanics, 63 percent received high-priced loans, while among non-Hispanic whites the figure was 46 percent.

Unsuitable Loans

Consumer advocates have long said that lightly supervised lenders were giving unsuitable loans to minority borrowers. Regulators have cracked down on so-called predatory lending over the last year. The Fed, after goading by Congress, prohibited lenders from granting high-priced loans without verifying a borrower’s income and assets.

Global financial institutions have reported $1 trillion in credit losses and writedowns since the mortgage crisis began 16 months ago. Delinquencies on subprime mortgages, or home loans to borrowers with limited or poor credit histories, rose to 20 percent in the third quarter, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data.

The U.S. mortgage meltdown has led to a recession, as foreclosures blighted neighborhoods and reduced home values, further constraining credit.

Employers cut payrolls by 533,000 last month for a total loss this year of 1.9 million jobs. The decline more than erases the gain last year of 1.1 million.

The economy will decline at a 4.3 percent annual pace this quarter and at a 2.4 percent rate in the first three months of next year, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of economists earlier this month.