Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Unemployment Rate versus Mortgage Delinquency Rate

The chart can be expanded by clicking on it. But one interesting thing to look at is comparing the delinquency rate on all Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae Mortgages (The bar charts -- which use the left axis) versus the unemployment rate during the last 5 years. It's not surprising that as people lose their jobs and/or become under-employed they have less ability to stay current on their monthly mortgage payments.

consequently, the seriously delinquency rate experienced by America's largest mortgage companies really spikes up. You can see that Fannie has experienced far more mortgages going bad than Freddie has---but neither one did good in 2010. Fortunately, things seemed to have plateaued for now---However, as the chart shows---if people start getting laid off again, I think another step up in charge-offs and non-performing loans could pester these GSA's.

(Unfortunately, it had been months since I pulled the unemployment data, and I couldn't readily find the monthly U-6 data for much of 2009 and 2010---If you happen to have it handy, feel free to leave it in the comments and hopefully I'll be able to update the chart in a future month).

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