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Showing posts with label Mortgage Origination. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mortgage Origination. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Friday, February 13, 2009
19 Years of Mortgage Origination Data 1990 - 2008
The Mortgage Bankers Association publishes quarterly data on the amount of mortgage originations for homes (1 - 4 family homes)
If you plot the mortgage data (See chart below) you will see the quarterly flows of mortgage orignations for purchase (Blue bars) and Refinancing (Purple Bars)---You can see that in 1990 & 1994 there was very little refinancing--due to high interest rates, and then from 2001 - 2008 just about every quarter saw a greater amount of refinancing than purchase mortgage financing
Click for Larger Image
Whenever you look at quarterly data it can be a little lumpy, so I transformed the mortgage data to be a rolling 4 quarter average (i.e. the data shown below in Q4-1990 represents the average data for Q1, Q2, Q3, & Q4-1990).
What you will see is that amount of mortgage originations for purchases peaked at Q1-2006 and mortgage refinancing peaked in 2003.
Click for Larger Image
In my estimation, if the Obama stimulus package is successful in lowering mortgage rates during the first half of 2009, you may see an increase in refinancing and purchase mortgage originations---But much like a python swalling a pig---eventually (1) everyone who could refinance will have refinanced their mortgage and (2) market rates will creep back up---That coupled with fewer homes being sold and dropping real-estate prices will cause the purchase mortgage originations to be dropping in 2010 and 2011 as well.
What do you think?
If you plot the mortgage data (See chart below) you will see the quarterly flows of mortgage orignations for purchase (Blue bars) and Refinancing (Purple Bars)---You can see that in 1990 & 1994 there was very little refinancing--due to high interest rates, and then from 2001 - 2008 just about every quarter saw a greater amount of refinancing than purchase mortgage financing
Click for Larger ImageWhenever you look at quarterly data it can be a little lumpy, so I transformed the mortgage data to be a rolling 4 quarter average (i.e. the data shown below in Q4-1990 represents the average data for Q1, Q2, Q3, & Q4-1990).
What you will see is that amount of mortgage originations for purchases peaked at Q1-2006 and mortgage refinancing peaked in 2003.
Click for Larger ImageIn my estimation, if the Obama stimulus package is successful in lowering mortgage rates during the first half of 2009, you may see an increase in refinancing and purchase mortgage originations---But much like a python swalling a pig---eventually (1) everyone who could refinance will have refinanced their mortgage and (2) market rates will creep back up---That coupled with fewer homes being sold and dropping real-estate prices will cause the purchase mortgage originations to be dropping in 2010 and 2011 as well.
What do you think?
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Mortgage Bankers Association predicts declining amounts of Mortgages
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the amount of Mortgages originated in 2008, 2009, and 2010 will be significantly less than what the market saw in 2007.
This forecast from December 11, 2008---will likely be updated now that the feds have agreed to buy mortgage related securities and the rates on the 30 year mortgage are at-or-near record lows. Consequently, I think the refinance estimates for 2009 may be on the low-side.
This forecast from December 11, 2008---will likely be updated now that the feds have agreed to buy mortgage related securities and the rates on the 30 year mortgage are at-or-near record lows. Consequently, I think the refinance estimates for 2009 may be on the low-side.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Q3 2008 Top 10 Mortgage Originators
The Top-10 mortgage originators in Q3-2008 originated $230 billion of mortgages in Q3-2008, which is 29% less than the $323 billion of business that they did in Q3-2007.
It's also interesting to note that Bank of America's increase in business was driven by their acquisition of Countrywide Mortgage. In the quarter, Washington Mutual (WaMu) had the distinction of having the largest drop in business--on both dollar terms ($24 billion less) and percentage decrease (down 71%).
It's also interesting to note that Bank of America's increase in business was driven by their acquisition of Countrywide Mortgage. In the quarter, Washington Mutual (WaMu) had the distinction of having the largest drop in business--on both dollar terms ($24 billion less) and percentage decrease (down 71%).
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Top 10 Mortgage Providers Originate much fewer loans in Q2-2008 vs Q2-2007
Comparing Q2-2008 Mortgage origination figures with Q2-2007, you can see that there was a significant decrease in mortgages underwritten.
The top-10 Mortgage originators did $320 billion in originations in Q2-2008 compared to $507 billion, from those same companies in Q2-2007. In dollar terms Countrywide shrunk from $130 billion to $59 billion; While Washington Mutual (WaMu) saw the biggest percent decline--Down 74%.
The top-10 Mortgage originators did $320 billion in originations in Q2-2008 compared to $507 billion, from those same companies in Q2-2007. In dollar terms Countrywide shrunk from $130 billion to $59 billion; While Washington Mutual (WaMu) saw the biggest percent decline--Down 74%.
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