Mortgage Delinquencies Continue to Worsen for Sub-prime, Jumbo, and Option ARM loans

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According to data from JP Morgan Chase 60+ delinquency rates across all loan catagories continue to rise.

The latest statistics from March 31, 2009 show that mortgage delinquencies for Subprime loans reached ~40% in March, and Option ARM loans (sometimes called pick-a-payment) went north of 30%, and this group has the steepest rise in default rates. [You can count on the Option ARM loans to continue increase in defaults as the resets roll through during 2009 - 2011]

These segments were followed by Alt-A mortgages with almost 20% of loans being 60 days or more behind and Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOC) hovering around 10%...

Another disturbing trend is the early uptick in Jumbo Prime loans that are past due.
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On the other side of the chart is the recovery values by loan type...

As you'd expect HELOC loans have the worst recovery values---this is because they are typically not the first lien on the property---But another disturbing trend is that the recovery rates across all types of loans has been on serious downward spiral.

Hat tip to: Dr. Housing Bubble for the chart

Jumbo Mortgage Defaults on the Rise

According to bloomberg Jumbo Mortgage Defaults are rising at their fastest pace in over 17 years.

Jumbo-loan defaults rise at fastest pace in 17 years
BLOOMBERG

NEW YORK — Owners of luxury houses are falling behind on mortgage payments at the fastest pace in 17 years.

About 2.57 percent of prime borrowers who took out jumbo loans last year were at least 60 days delinquent within 10 months, according to LPS Applied Analytics, a mortgage data service in Jacksonville, Fla.

That big a proportion at that speed hasn’t been recorded since at least 1992, when LPS began tracking the market. It took 19 months for as large a proportion of borrowers from 2007 to be so overdue.

The jump in late payments on jumbo loans, although still lower than the 20 percent delinquency rate in subprime mortgages, signals that the borrowers with the most money and the best credit are hurting as the U.S. recession deepens in its second year. It also means these loans will be even more difficult to obtain and more expensive to pay off.

President Obama’s homeowner aid proposal has no provision to help jumbo-mortgage borrowers.

About 1.92 percent of home­owners with 2008 mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fell at least 60 days behind, LPS Applied Analytics said. Jumbo loans are bigger than what the two government-controlled agencies buy or guarantee.

Currently the Fannie-Freddie cap is $417,000 in most places and up to $729,750 in areas with higher home prices.

Jumbo Mortgage Delinquencies are increasing

According to the the WSJ

By NICK TIMIRAOS

Rising defaults by affluent homeowners are raising the specter of another cloud over banks and investors, which could get stuck with thousands of expensive homes.

About 6.9% of prime "jumbo" loans were at least 90 days delinquent in December, according to LPS Applied Analytics, a mortgage-data research firm. The rate was up sharply from 2.6% a year earlier. In comparison, delinquencies of non-jumbo prime loans that qualify for backing by government agencies climbed to 2.1% from 0.8% in December 2007.

Jumbo mortgages average about $750,000 and can run as high as $5 million or more. More borrowers with such loans are being hit by layoffs that are spreading through practically every sector and pay level of the U.S. economy.

On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported that the jobless rate rose in December in all 50 states, hitting at least 10% in Michigan and Rhode Island. States that suffered the biggest jumps in unemployment in the past year include California and Florida, where the largest number of jumbo loans were made.

FHA reduces guarantee amount on Chicago area mortgages

story from Chicagobusiness.com

Home loan setback

A key support for mortgage lending just shrank, dealing a new blow to the moribund housing market.

As of Jan. 1, the Federal Housing Administration reduced the amount it will guarantee on mortgages in the Chicago area to $365,700 from $417,000. FHA-backed mortgages filled part of the gap left by private lenders retreating from the mortgage market as housing values plunged.

FHA loans accounted for about 30% of weekly mortgage applications nationwide during the last half of 2008, vs. about 10% during the same period in 2007, according to the Washington, D.C.-based Mortgage Bankers Assn.

Homes priced between $380,000 and $450,000 will no longer qualify for FHA guarantees, affecting neighborhoods across metropolitan Chicago, from northwest suburban Arlington Heights to Oak Park in the western suburbs to parts of Chicago's North Side. Sellers in that price range will face more pressure to cut their asking prices, exacerbating the decline in home values throughout the region.

"We need every possible tool we can use to bring first-time buyers into the market," says Kathe Doremus, senior mortgage loan consultant with Community Bank-Wheaton/Glen Ellyn, who says at least 70% of the mortgage loans her bank makes in the western suburbs are now FHA-backed. "All we have left is FHA, and we need every piece of it we can get."

FHA loan limits are dropping in cities across the country as home prices fall. The limit for each metropolitan area is based on prevailing market prices in that city. In the Chicago area, the median home price fell to $207,745 in November, a 16% drop from November 2007.

Lower FHA limits will squeeze sellers in many local communities. In Arlington Heights, for example, 63 of 134 homes on the market at prices between $350,000 and $450,000 will lose access to FHA backing, according to the Illinois Assn. of Mortgage Professionals.

Jorge Gomez, president of the association and a mortgage broker on the Northwest Side, estimates that 50% to 60% of mortgages he handled last year were FHA-backed last year, up from less than 10% in 2007. He worries that home sellers looking to expand the pool of potential buyers will lower prices to meet the new FHA threshold, establishing pricing benchmarks that will force values down for everyone. He says many of the homes in the Old Irving Park neighborhood where he lives are in the price range that has been affected.

"You're depressing an entire neighborhood now," he says.

All but ignored during the housing boom, FHA loans are popular now because they allow borrowers to make small down payments — as low as 3.5% of a home's value. Other lenders, including those offering mortgages backed by federal loan agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, require at least 5% down.

And, for some home types such as condominiums, mortgage insurance is particularly hard to get without an FHA guarantee. The lower limit will put a major damper on sales of affected condos, real estate professionals say.

"If we could just get some continuity (in lending) and get the ball rolling, I think we'd be OK," says David Hanna, president of the Chicagoland Assn. of Realtors. "This (FHA change) is just not going to help."

Jumbo Mortgage Refinance rates remain high

According to the Boston Globe:

Jumbo mortgage loan rates put damper on refinancing

Kerry and Rebecca Scarlott, shown in their Hingham home with their daughter, Meghan, and dog, Dory, refinanced their jumbo loan with two smaller loans. (John Tlumacki/Globe STaff)

By Jenifer B. McKim Globe Staff / January 5, 2009

While plunging mortgage rates have spawned a frenzy of refinancing, borrowers with larger, so-called jumbo loans are still seeing interest rates in the 7 percent range, prompting many to abandon refinancing plans altogether or resort to creative transactions.

The high rates are particularly an issue in Greater Boston, where expensive housing forces many people into jumbo-loan territory, which is currently $465,750 and above. In 2006, more than 10 percent of borrowers in Massachusetts took out jumbo mortgages.

Borrowers with conventional mortgages - those at or below $417,000 - are getting rates as low as 5 percent, while the national average for a jumbo loan hovers around 7 percent.

There is a new, third category of mortgages between jumbo and conventional loans, created last year by Congress, called conforming jumbos, which now average about 5.6 percent, according to a provider of industry data, HSH Associates.

"I think it is crazy you can't get as good a rate," said Julia Blake, 36, who with her husband is looking to refinance the Cape they bought in Wellesley for $695,000 in 2007. "To me, a jumbo loan should be a luxury house, and in Wellesley it is not. You can't get anything less than $600,000."

Another Wellesley resident, Paul Barnhill, wants to refinance his adjustable-rate jumbo loan into a fixed-rate loan, but not at current rates.

"I would refinance in a heartbeat if I could get 5 percent," said Barnhill, 44.

Jumbo mortgage rates are higher because lenders who initiate the loans are having trouble selling them on the secondary market, where the resale of mortgages provides funds for new loans. The banks and investment groups that buy mortgages are reeling from the credit crisis and the subprime mortgage debacle, and are steering clear of any loans that smack of higher risk. The major players on the secondary market, government-sponsored Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, do not purchase jumbo loans.

Industry groups are calling on the federal government to intervene. For example, the Federal Reserve Bank is purchasing huge amounts of mortgages and related securities, which industry officials said would result in even lower rates for conventional loans. The National Association of Realtors wants the Fed to do the same with jumbo loans.

"It's unfortunate that the jumbo interest rates are very high and the government is not being responsive to that," said Lawrence Yun, the trade group's chief economist. "It is not only hurting the Main Street, but it's a fairness issue. Why are people who are slightly over the loan limit being punished?"

Last year, Congress raised jumbo limits when it allowed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy or guarantee higher-balance loans. In Massachusetts, the limit increased to $523,750, from $417,000, with jumbo loans being above the higher amount, and conforming jumbos between the two figures.

read the rest of the story here